Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 4.152041 4.895923 5.720189 6.699211 7.828197 9.087063 10.594814
2025-07-20 3.108686 4.131287 5.388661 7.038528 9.135289 11.698939 15.057248
2025-07-27 2.449047 3.602915 5.151359 7.357316 10.390584 14.381762 19.990771
2025-08-03 1.921038 3.092223 4.789068 7.384284 11.199944 16.539124 24.491918
2025-08-10 1.483065 2.593663 4.319337 7.132979 11.523561 18.008234 28.167984
2025-08-17 1.144898 2.164585 3.855704 6.780194 11.597626 19.066959 31.308451
2025-08-24 0.934691 1.897515 3.591385 6.679180 12.015465 20.649473 35.365062
2025-08-31 0.776811 1.686536 3.377873 6.615386 12.462094 22.295835 39.659664
2025-09-07 0.692977 1.597155 3.362213 6.888403 13.504217 25.009077 45.947599
2025-09-14 0.596840 1.460802 3.231580 6.922221 14.111208 27.026453 51.231686
2025-09-21 0.515784 1.338230 3.104948 6.939174 14.678189 29.014306 56.630791
2025-09-28 0.447560 1.229037 2.985680 6.948861 15.223485 31.002529 62.194243
2025-10-05 0.429547 1.238654 3.129400 7.538053 17.009354 35.514824 72.893815
2025-10-12 0.388256 1.181351 3.114923 7.787465 18.139273 38.898924 81.807325
2025-10-19 0.354929 1.137257 3.123517 8.089138 19.414358 42.688348 91.839568
2025-10-26 0.310265 1.050816 3.013984 8.101290 20.063470 45.282757 99.747472
2025-11-02 0.258803 0.930796 2.796940 7.821837 20.025828 46.457704 104.898055
2025-11-09 0.211631 0.810128 2.553663 7.436068 19.689894 46.961268 108.697212
2025-11-16 0.182041 0.737427 2.426620 7.325464 19.984238 48.841205 115.535074
2025-11-23 0.158082 0.676770 2.321687 7.255817 20.366582 50.944964 123.020974
2025-11-30 0.147672 0.661805 2.349288 7.552604 21.695786 55.297801 135.766525
2025-12-07 0.131551 0.620554 2.288133 7.589336 22.362776 58.180831 145.454833
2025-12-14 0.116987 0.580882 2.224126 7.607755 22.983343 61.007674 155.234758